QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF MALI, NIGER, AND BURKINA FASO FROM ECOWAS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

Abstract

This study examined the implications of the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and assessed the economic   consequences for Nigeria and its citizens. The collective withdrawal of these three countries, driven by political tensions with ECOWAS, sanctions imposed on military juntas, and the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), represents an unprecedented challenge to regional integration in West Africa. As the largest economy and a founding member of ECOWAS, Nigeria stands at the center of the crisis, necessitating the qualitative investigation into its potential impact. This study therefore explored the implications of their withdrawal from ECOWA on Nigeria economy. The research adopted a qualitative methodological approach based primarily on secondary data, including formal publications, ECOWAS communiqués, policy briefs, media reports, international institutional documents and key informant interviews as well as content analysis which enabled a systematic interpretation of themes related to economic implications. The study anchored on Realist theory, which explains the pursuit of national interest and sovereignty, and Regional integration theory, which highlights the role of cooperation and interdependence in enhancing regional stability. The findings revealed that the withdrawal of the three Sahel states has significant economic implications for Nigeria. The exit of Niger Republic—Nigeria’s major northern neighbor has disrupted cross-border trade flows, increased transaction costs, worsened food insecurity, and undermined the livelihoods of border communities that depend heavily on informal and formal transnational commerce. The restrictions on the free movement of goods and persons have further compounded economic hardship for citizens that were engaging in agriculture, livestock trade, and small-scale busness. The study concluded that the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso poses a substantial threat to the stability and economic prosperity of Nigeria and undermines decades of regional integration efforts. It recommended that Nigeria should intensify diplomatic engagement with the withdrawing states, strengthen border security systems, diversify regional economic partnerships, and implement social protection measures for affected border populations.