Al-Hikmah University Journal

February 2020 to March 2021. Results indicated a significant decline in oil prices during the study period, with a slight recovery towards the end. The study found that oil prices responded positively to COVID-19 shocks, and remained low for the entire forecast horizon. COVID-19 cases had a 100% response rate to their shock, while deaths had a 69% response rate by the end of the forecast period. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should reduce its reliance on oil as the main source of foreign exchange due to its vulnerability to external negative impacts. Additionally, the study suggests that vaccination efforts be intensified to control the spread of the virus, and more research should be conducted to create an effective vaccine that would address the current controversies about vaccine effectiveness. The research highlights the importance of economic diversification as a means to prevent dependence on a single source of income.