POPULATION DYNAMICS, SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This paper juxtaposes data on Nigeria's demographics, insecurity and human development

indices to illustrate their connection. Population, security and development are intricately

connected. However, the nature of their relationship is sometimes non-linear or even

ambiguous. Nigeria is faced with population explosion, spate of insecurity and worsening

human development indices. In other words, in the face of rapid population growth and rising

insecurity, the country's human development indices are below the global and sub-Saharan

African averages.

The paper uses secondary sources to generate data on Nigeria's demographics, insecurity

and human development indices. Changes in size and structure of the Nigeria's population

have translated into youth bulge, growth of urban population and competition over access to

increasingly scarce natural resources (specifically wetland for farming and grazing) in rural

areas. These demographic dynamics are not accompanied with increased investment in

social services or human capital. Consequently, youth unemployment, poverty, livelihood

displacement and hopelessness have become prevalent. The preponderance of these stress

factors (youth bulge, urban population growth and growing scarcity of land) and declined

investment in social services have resulted in different forms of insecurity — youth gangs,

insurgency, farmer-herder conflict, militancy, ethno-religious clashes and rural banditry.

The paper argues that widening ungoverned space, ecological crisis, poor economic policies

and mobilization of primordial identities in Nigeria may have further confounded the

association between demographic changes and security, and together they slow its pace of

development. The country requires a robust population policy and massive investment in

social services to leverage its demographic dividends.