HEALTHCARE INFLATION AND VULNERABILITY IN NIGERIA: IDENTIFYING AT-RISK POPULATIONS (1985–2023)
Keywords:
Healthcare, Vulnerability, Risk Population, InflationAbstract
Healthcare inflation has remained a persistent challenge in Nigeria, significantly undermining the affordability of
medical services and exacerbating existing health inequalities. Rising costs of healthcare disproportionately affect
vulnerable populations, limiting access to essential services and widening the gap between different socio-economic
groups. This study examines the relationship between healthcare inflation and vulnerability, with a particular focus
on at-risk populations over the period from 1985 to 2023. To achieve its objectives, the study adopts an
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which allows for the analysis of both short- and long-term
dynamics among the variables. The findings indicate that healthcare inflation in urban areas has a significant
positive effect on vulnerability, suggesting that increases in medical costs in cities intensify the exposure of
populations to health-related risks. In contrast, healthcare inflation in rural areas is found to have an insignificant
effect, possibly due to lower utilization of formal healthcare services or differing cost structures in those regions.
Furthermore, the results reveal that health expenditure as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a
significant negative effect on vulnerability. This implies that increased public investment in healthcare can help
reduce the adverse impacts of rising medical costs and improve overall population resilience. On the other hand,
GDP per capita growth is shown to have an insignificant moderating effect, indicating that economic growth alone
does not necessarily translate into improved healthcare access or reduced vulnerability. Based on these findings, the
study recommends that governments at all levels prioritize policies aimed at controlling healthcare inflation,
increasing effective healthcare spending, and fostering inclusive economic growth to enhance access and equity in
Nigeria’s health sector.
