SPATIAL AND SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF BIRTH RATE IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2024 DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY

Abstract

The need to understand the recent patterns and determinants of Nigeria’s fertility data necessitates this study. This 
study utilized the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data to examine the contributing factors to 
Nigeria’s ever-increasing birth rate. Four randomly selected samples of 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, and 30,000 
respondents, without replacement, were analyzed using a geo-additive model with Bayesian inference. Results from 
the best model revealed that a high number of births is attributed to the following factors: living in the North-East, 
North-West, or South-East, being an urban dweller, being from a poor household, being married, living with a 
partner, being a widow, and a woman’s age. Meanwhile, a lower number of births is associated with living in the 
South-South or South-West, belonging to the rich households, usage of contraceptives, never being in a union, and 
age at first birth.  The total number of births to each woman fluctuates as the age at first sex increases. A higher 
number of births in the Northern region without corresponding provision might be responsible for the security 
challenges being witnessed for the past decade. Therefore, policymakers are urged to address the socioeconomic 
drivers of this high fertility to ensure that urban growth aligns with sustainable development goals.