ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON TOMATO (solanum lycopersicum) CULTIVATION QUALITY AND AGRARIAN SOCIOECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY IN NIGERIA'S NORTHERN AGROECOLOGICAL ZONE

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on tomato cultivation quality and agrarian socioeconomic security 
in Nigeria’s Northern Agroecological Zone, a region increasingly exposed to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, 
and extreme weather events. Tomatoes are a key livelihood and food security crop in northern Nigeria, yet climate 
variability continues to disrupt production systems, farmer resilience, and public health outcomes. A descriptive 
cross-sectional design was employed, involving 406 tomato farmers and sellers across major producing states. Data 
were collected using structured questionnaires assessing climate change knowledge and awareness, perceived food 
security impacts, and public health risks. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 29, including 
descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, correlation, and regression analyses. Findings revealed very high awareness of 
climate change (97.3%) among respondents; however, depth of understanding was largely moderate, with only 
14.8% demonstrating detailed knowledge. Education level and years of agricultural experience were significantly 
associated with climate change awareness (p < 0.05), while age and gender were not. Food security impact scores 
clustered around the mid-range (mean = 6.5), indicating moderate disruptions in availability and access, particularly 
among lower-income and rainy-season farmers. Public health impact perceptions were also moderate (mean = 3.63), 
with increased risk of waterborne diseases, heat-related illnesses, pesticide exposure, and water scarcity identified as 
key concerns. Correlation analysis showed a weak association between climate knowledge and food security (r = 
0.08) and a stronger relationship between food security and public health impacts (r = 0.27). The study demonstrates 
that climate change significantly affects tomato farming livelihoods, food security, and public health in northern 
Nigeria, with knowledge alone insufficient to offset structural and environmental vulnerabilities. The findings 
highlight the need for integrated climate-smart interventions focusing on farmer education, supply chain resilience, 
and localized public health risk mitigation to sustain tomato production and improve agrarian wellbeing under 
changing climatic conditions.