Department of Economics, Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin, Nigeria
Economic and Political Institutions and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria: Evidence from GARCH Models
This study examined the effect of economic and political institutions on exchange-rate volatility in Nigeria over the period 1992–2022. Specifically, it investigated the effects of economic institutions, political institutions and their interaction on exchange-rate volatility. The study employed the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to estimate exchange-rate volatility and analyse the influence of institutional factors. The findings reveal that economic institutions have a positive and statistically significant effect on exchange-rate volatility. Similarly, the Polity II index has a positive and significant effect, whereas Constraints on Executive Power (CEP) exert a significant negative effect on exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, the interaction between economic institutions and Polity II is positive and significant, while the interaction between economic institutions and CEP is negative and significant. The EGARCH results also confirm the presence of persistent exchange-rate volatility in Nigeria. The study concludes that the effect of institutions on exchange-rate volatility depends on the quality of economic and political governance. It recommends strengthening institutional checks and balances, enhancing the independence and credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria, improving transparency and accountability, and reducing political interference in exchange-rate management to promote exchange-rate stability and long-run macroeconomic stability.
Copyright (c) 2026 AL-HIKMAH JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY RATE ON PRICE STABILITY IN NIGERIA
Despite numerous monetary policy decisions by the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee, Nigeria’s inflation rate (particularly in food, energy, and transport sectors) has remained persistently high. This study aims to assess the impact of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) on price stability in Nigeria. The paper is based on Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) quarterly data generated for the period 2012 – 2025, which were analysed using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (D-OLS) estimation technique. The results show that the MPR has a positive and significant impact on prices across these sectors, with a 1% rise in MPR leading to a 5.64% increase in food prices, 7.36% in energy prices, and 5.38% in transport prices. In contrast, the Lending Rate (LR) has a negative and significant impact on price across sectors, reducing food prices by 6.62%, energy prices by 6.23%, and transport prices by 5.19% for every 1% increase in the Lending Rate (LR). The study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria can use the MPR to manage inflation.
Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (D-OLS), Inflation, Lending Rate (LR), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Nigeria, Price Stability.
HOUSEHOLDS' WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR FISH AS AN ANIMAL PROTEIN IN ILORIN WEST, KWARA STATE
Inadequate animal protein intake is a significant nutrition problem in Nigeria, which continues to pose a threat to the nutrition, health, and productivity of households. This study focused on the willingness to pay attitude of fish consumers' households regarding fish as animal protein in Ilorin West Local Government Area, Kwara State, in the face of increasing food prices and economic problems. The study was based on the theory of consumer behaviour, which explains the way households spend their limited income amongst competing needs. The study was designed cross sectionally, and primary data were collected from 400 households through a structured questionnaire based on the Contingent Valuation Method. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics and the Probit regression model. The results indicated that the amount of the first bid, age, income, household size, location, and religion had a significant effect on willingness to pay for fish, while gender and marital status did not have a significant effect. The willingness to pay decreased with higher bid prices, while higher income, household size, and urban residence increased willingness to pay. The willingness decreased with age, and Muslim households had a higher willingness than Christian households. The study findings suggest that affordability and socioeconomic factors play an important role in determining willingness to pay for fish. It suggests policies that can stabilise fish prices sustainably.
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND QUALITY OF LIFE DYNAMICS: THE NIGERIAN PERSPECTIVE
The persistent growth in public spending has not led to any improvements in welfare outcomes for the people, raising questions about the efficiency of fiscal policy in advancing HDI. For this reason, this study examines the government expenditure and quality of life nexus in Nigeria over the period 1985–2024. The study examines social well-being through non-income indicators, which include life expectancy at birth, school enrollment, and poverty rate. After testing the unit root test with ADF, PP, and KPSS tests. The ARDL analysis showed that government spending in Nigeria created a direct connection between government expenditure and quality of life improvements. The study found that capital expenditure positively impacts life expectancy and school enrollment, while recurrent expenditure showed inconsistent effects on the measured indicators. The results demonstrate that expenditure composition, together with execution efficiency, directly impacts welfare outcomes. The study concludes that Nigeria needs to shift its public funding toward social and infrastructure sectors, which will produce better results when combined with enhanced fiscal control and accountability systems.
Substance abuse and Human Capital Development in Nigeria: An Endogenous Growth Model
Substance abuse has a detrimental impact on human capital development by eroding the physical, mental and educational foundation of the workforce. This study aims to interrogate the long-run relationship between Human Capital Development (HCD) and Substance Abuse Prevalence (SAP) in Nigeria economy. The data for substance abuse prevalence are extrapolated from the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) Annual Report from 1993 to 2025. Human Capital Development is indexed by secondary school enrolment for the same period. Results from the Vector Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (VAR) techniques show that SAP has a significant Negative Impact on Human Capital Development in the short run, while the variable Capital Expenditure (CE) on substance abuse prevention shows a negative but significant impact on HCD. The results of the long-run analysis also show that SAP has a significant negative impact on HCD at the 1% level. Contrary to our a priori expectation, Capital Expenditure (CE) on substance abuse prevention has a negative but significant effect on HCD at the 5% level. Based on these findings, the study recommended that a massive preventive substance abuse education and enlightenment programme that emphasises a healthy lifestyle should be embarked upon in our educational institutions.
Revisiting Growth Accounting in Nigeria: The Role of Factor Accumulation versus Total Factor Productivity
This study revisits the proximate sources of Nigeria's economic growth by decomposing real GDP growth into the contributions of physical capital, labour, and total factor productivity (TFP) within a neoclassical growth-accounting framework for 1995–2024. It extends previous aggregate analyses by examining three policy regimes: the post-adjustment democratic transition (1995–2003), the oil-boom and reform-consolidation period (2004–2013), and the post-oil-shock era of structural reforms and exchange-rate realignment (2014–2024). The objective is to determine whether Nigeria's growth shifted from productivity-driven (intensive) to input-driven (extensive). Results indicate that real GDP grew by an average of 4.17% annually, with labour contributing 55% of total growth, TFP 36%, and capital 9%. However, regime-specific estimates reveal a significant structural shift. TFP accounted for 61% and 52% of growth during the first and second regimes, respectively, but turned negative (-1.26%) in 2014–2024, while labour became the dominant growth source. This reversal in the Solow residual coincided with declining dollar-denominated per capita income, suggesting that recent growth weakness reflects falling productive efficiency rather than insufficient factor accumulation. Sustained growth therefore requires reforms that strengthen institutions, improve resource allocation, enhance human capital, raise investment quality, and diversify the productive base.
Determinants of the Adoption of Non-Interest Financial Services in Nigeria
This study examined the behavioural determinants of the adoption of non-interest financial services in Nigeria using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Specifically, it investigated the effects of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control on behavioural intention and assessed the influence of behavioural intention on actual adoption. A quantitative cross-sectional survey design was employed, and primary data were collected from 145 respondents using a structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The findings revealed that attitude and subjective norms positively and significantly influenced behavioural intention, whereas perceived behavioural control had no significant effect. Behavioural intention significantly predicted actual adoption and mediated the relationships between attitude, subjective norms, and actual adoption. The study concludes that favourable perceptions and social influence are the major drivers of non-interest financial service adoption in Nigeria. The findings provide useful insights for policymakers and financial institutions seeking to enhance financial inclusion through increased awareness, customer education, and supportive regulatory policies.
Do Capital Accumulation, Globalisation, and Institutions Reduce Income Inequality Within the Kuznets Hypothesis in Nigeria?
Thus, this study investigates how capital accumulation (through human and physical capital), globalisation, and institutions worsen income inequality within the Kuznets framework in Nigeria. The data were sourced from the UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database (WIID), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Public Finance and Real Annual Statistical Bulletin, the KOF Globalisation Index, and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The results employed the ECM-ARDL, Granger causality, and FMOLS frameworks, revealing that the per capita growth rate, the square of the per capita growth rate, education expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, and institutions worsen income inequality in the long-run. However, health expenditures and globalisation have a positive impact on income inequality in the long run, whereas health expenditures and gross fixed capital formation reduce it in the short run. Moreover, the long-run and short-run results are consistent with the FMOLS robustness test. In contrast, the Granger causality test indicates unidirectional causality from gross fixed capital formation, globalisation, and institutions, suggesting that institutional changes have a predictive reverse short-run effect on inequality and public capital investment. Thus, policy recommendations were discussed based on the findings.
Capital accumulation. FMOLS. Globalisation. Institutions. Income inequality
FINANCIALISATION AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWTH IN WEST AFRICA: MODERATING EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION
The industrial sector in West Africa has faced persistent volatility arising from macroeconomic instability, infrastructural gaps, and external shocks, limiting sustained industrial growth. Despite regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, challenges related to production costs, access to finance, and governance continue to constrain industrial performance. This study examines the relationship between environmental regulation, financialisation, and industrial output growth in 16 West African countries from 1990 to 2023. Using panel data techniques and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, the study assesses both the direct effect of financialisation and the moderating role of environmental regulation. The results show that financialisation is associated with lower industrial output growth, indicating a shift of resources away from productive industrial activities. In contrast, effective environmental regulation improves industrial performance by reducing the adverse influence of financialisation. Countries with stronger regulatory frameworks record relatively higher industrial growth outcomes. The findings further suggest that poorly regulated financial liberalisation can weaken industrial development, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. The study emphasises the need for coordinated policies that strengthen environmental regulation, improve financial sector governance, and support long-term industrial investment to achieve sustainable industrial development in West Africa.
Environmental regulation, Financialization, Industrial output growth, PMG, West Africa
IMPACT OF NAIRA REDESIGN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA
This study examined the impact of the Naira redesign on economic growth in Nigeria. Using annual time series data from 1986 – 2024 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study explored the impact of real gross domestic product (LRGDP), Naira redesign (NRD), exchange rate (LEXR), interest rate (INT), and inflation rate (INF). The ARDL Bounds Test provided no evidence of a long-run relationship among the variables, indicating that the Naira redesign policy does not significantly influence Nigeria’s economic growth in the long term. The short-run ARDL model revealed that the Naira redesign had no statistically significant effect on RGDP. However, the exchange rate, particularly with a one-period lag, significantly influenced short-run economic growth, while interest rates and inflation showed no significant short-run effects. The model’s diagnostic tests confirmed the absence of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, supporting the reliability of the estimated results. The study also found that currency outside the banking system was achieved. Leading to the conclusion that the Naira redesign policy had no substantial short-run impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that policymakers allow sufficient adjustment time for currency reforms and prioritise strategies that improve Nigeria’s financial infrastructure and monetary transmission effectiveness.
Cashless Policy, Currency Redesign Policy, Economic Growth, Naira Redesign Policy
Monetary Policy and Cement Production in Nigeria
In Nigeria’s quest for industrial growth and infrastructure development, the cement sector plays a pivotal role. However, its performance is intricately linked to macroeconomic conditions, especially monetary policy and exchange rate progressions. Hence, fluctuations in monetary indicators can significantly influence production costs and output levels. The specific objective of the study is to investigate how monetary policy instruments, namely; rate of exchange, inflation and money supply, affect the performance of Nigeria's cement industry. The aim is to find out the long-run relationship between these macroeconomic variables and cement production, using the annual time-series data during 1981 - 2023, by applying an ARDL (Autoregression Distributed Lag) model. Result show that money supply and exchange do not have a significant effect on cement output performance, while monetary policy rate, liquidity ratio and domestic credit to the private sector have a significant and positive effect. This suggests that an expansionary monetary policy could boost the capacity of cement production by increasing the level of liquidity. The paper suggests that stability in the exchange rate, sufficient money supply and accessibility to credit markets are the necessary conditions under which optimum output of the sub-sector can be assured.
Cement Industry Performance, Monetary Policy Instruments, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Money Supply and Credit
RANKING OF INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EFFECT ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN ONDO CITY, NIGERIA
This study examines the relationship between infrastructural development and poverty reduction in Ondo City, Nigeria, with a particular focus on how households rank different infrastructure sectors and how these perceptions align with poverty outcomes. Using primary survey data collected from 300 households, the study integrates descriptive analysis with econometric modelling to capture the welfare relevance of infrastructure ranking from the perspective of lived household experiences. Non-income poverty is measured using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based index constructed from indicators of education, health, road, and electricity deprivation, while monetary poverty is proxied using households’ self-reported income changes. The core explanatory variables are households' perceived rankings of road, electricity, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure. The results reveal that perceived improvements in electricity and road infrastructure are significantly associated with lower income poverty in the study area. In contrast, WASH infrastructure perceptions are shown to display an insignificant association with poverty. The findings demonstrate that households’ perceptions of infrastructure are closely aligned with tangible welfare outcomes, and that infrastructure sectors imposing frequent and visible economic constraints are ranked as most poverty-reducing. It is therefore recommended that poverty-oriented infrastructure strategies in Ondo City prioritise electricity and roads, among others.
Electricity reliability, Infrastructural development, Nigeria, Ondo City, Poverty reduction, Road connectivity, WASH services.
IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON INFLATION TARGETING IN POST PANDEMIC ECONOMY. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA
Persistent inflation remains one of the most challenging economic situations in Nigeria, despite the deployment of various monetary policy tools. This paper examined the effects of some of the indices of inflation, such as, Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), and Broad Money (M2), using monthly data. Data were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria database. Unit root test was tested to ascertain the stationarity property of the variables. Descriptive analysis indicated that inflation remained high during the period under review, alongside elevated monetary policy and reserve ratio levels. Ordinary Least Squares regression showed that the variables of monetary policy jointly explained a substantial proportion of the variation in inflation. The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) have a positive and significant effect on inflation, while the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) had a significant negative effect. However, Broad money supply (M2) exerted an insignificant but positive influence on inflation. These findings demonstrate that interest rate and reserve ratio policies were the primary drivers of inflation during the study period, whereas changes in broad money supply played no role. Following the findings, monetary authorities should strengthen the coordination and timing of adjustments to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and complement these measures with non-monetary strategies to sustain price stability.
Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Broad Money (M2), Inflation (INF).
PREREQUISITE KNOWLEDGE AND ACADEMIC SUCCESS IN ECONOMETRICS: A LOGISTIC REGRESSION STUDY OF ECONOMICS UNDERGRADUATES IN NIGERIA
This paper has discussed the factors that affect the academic performance of students in Econometrics at Prince Abubakar Audu University, Nigeria. Logistic regression modelling method was used to estimate quantitative demographic and academic data of a sample size of 897 Economics students. There were thirteen academic and demographic characteristics that were taken into account, bearing a particular interest in the performance in Econometrics. The results came up with six notable predictor variables that affect the academic performance of students in Econometrics. These consist of performance in Mathematics to Economists II (ECO 104), Economics Statistics (ECO 106), Macroeconomics Analysis II (ECO 204), Mathematics to Economists III (ECO 205) and Statistics to Economists III and IV (ECO 207 and ECO 208). This is because the courses are both introductory and analytical levels, with the critical role played in student achievement in Econometrics. The research suggests that these courses are of the utmost attention to educators and curriculum planners in the lecturing and learning framework to improve the quality of Econometrics learning in Nigeria.
Education, Students’ Academic Performance, Econometrics, Tertiary Institutions, Logistic Regression Model
EFFECT OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SERVICE SPENDING ON SMEs’ GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Despite the efforts of the government to develop the performance of SMEs in Nigeria, there are still major hurdles like poor infrastructure, limited access to affordable finance, and weak technological adoption. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of social and economic service spending on SMEs' growth in Nigeria. The study used the Bound test, ARDL and NARDL regression methods. Data estimated in the study were adopted from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators for the period of 2000 to 2023. The findings of the study show that economic service spending has a significant effect on SME growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should give more effort to both their economic and social service, specifically through human capital development and prioritising access to credit facilities, infrastructure development, and capacity improvement in ICT development, which could enhance SMEs’ growth.
SME, Social and economic spending service
BEHAVIOURAL PERCEPTION TOWARDS MALARIA HEALTH INSURANCE WITH OUTDOOR MOSQUITOES’ COMMUNITY FUMIGATION IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
Malaria is a preventable disease caused by female Anopheles mosquitoes, which has made the use of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and the use of indoor residual spraying (IRS) a common practice among households in this part of the world. Despite these practices, the incidence of mosquito infection remains undefeated. In consideration of this demeanour, this study seeks to examine the behavioural perception towards malaria health insurance with outdoor mosquitoes’ community fumigation in Kwara State, Nigeria. A total of 30 individual in-depth interviews were performed with selected stakeholders in two local governments with the highest incidence of malaria in the state. The study employed the theory of reasoned action and planned behaviour by Ajzen and Fishbein (1975 to develop a thematic method of analysis employed in the study with the use of NVivo software. The result indicates that the majority of the respondents showed positive attitudes, while the majority of them perceived that the program would be effective in eradicating mosquitoes and reducing the incidence of malaria in the community. It was recommended that the Nigerian government and private parastatals should improve and facilitate the establishment of malaria health insurance with routine outdoor mosquito community fumigation, with proper inclusion in the national malaria elimination program.
Malaria Prevention, Behavioral Perception, Health Insurance for Malaria and Community Mosquito Fumigation
THE IMPACT OF SUBSIDY REMOVAL ON THE EFFICACY AND ADOPTION OFCASUAL CARPOOLING SCHEMES IN NIGERIA
This study analyses the impact of fuel subsidy removal on the adoption and effectiveness of casual carpooling schemes in Nigeria. Historically, fuel subsidies have provided short-term price stability at the cost of long-term fiscal, governance, and environmental challenges. The removal in 2023 led to a sharp increase in fuel prices, prompting commuters to explore cost-sharing options, such as carpooling. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess hypothesised relationships among economic factors, effectiveness, perception, subsidy removal, and carpooling adoption using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Results indicate that financial pressures and the withdrawal of subsidies have a positive and significant influence on carpooling behaviour, while effectiveness and perception did not have direct significant impacts, though their indirect effects were notable. The moderation analysis also shows that gender and income significantly influence the relationship between subsidy removal and carpooling adoption, whereas age and educational qualification are not significant moderators. These findings underscore the role of subsidy reforms in changing travel behaviours and positioning carpooling as a sustainable transportation option. The research recommends awareness campaigns, supportive policies, and technological platforms to boost carpooling adoption.
Carpooling behaviour; Energy subsidy; Structural Equation Model; Sustainable transport
Copyright (c) 2025 AL-HIKMAH JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN NIGERIA
Income inequality in Nigeria persists despite decades of monetary interventions and growth policies, and is increasingly compounded by climate-related shocks. While these drivers are often examined separately, this study offers a novel perspective by jointly analyzing how monetary policy and climate change interact to shape inequality. Using annual data from 1986–2024 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study assesses the short- and long-run dynamics among the Gini index, monetary policy rate (MPR), GDP growth, and climate indicators. Unit root tests show mixed integration orders, while ARDL bounds tests reveal no significant long-run relationship. Short-run estimates, however, indicate that a higher MPR significantly raises inequality, implying that monetary tightening disproportionately affects vulnerable groups. GDP growth also exhibits a marginally positive effect on inequality, reflecting “growth without inclusion,” while climate variables are insignificant in the short run. The findings suggest that monetary policies must integrate equity objectives. The Central Bank of Nigeria should expand targeted credit schemes and promote financial inclusion, while government authorities should invest in climate-resilient agriculture, irrigation, and disaster-risk reduction to cushion vulnerable populations. Coordinated policies are essential to ensure that macroeconomic stability does not exacerbate inequality.
ARDL Climate Change, Income Inequality, Kuznets Monetary Policy Rate
IMPACT OF INCOME INEQUALITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: LORENZ CURVE AND ARDL APPROACH
The United Nations' 2030 Leave No One Behind Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) is currently receiving significant attention. This has heightened awareness of the significance of reducing economic inequality in Nigeria. Mitigating inequality can foster economic advancement, harmonious collaboration, and more robust and enduring social connections. This study examines the relationship between Nigeria's economic growth and income disparity from 1986 to 2024. The research employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test approach to identify short-term fluctuations and a long-term relationship. The co-integration test indicates an absence of a long-term relationship between income disparity and economic growth. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test indicates a robust and positive influence between income inequality and economic growth in the short term. Based on these results, the study recommends policies that channel short-term inequality-induced gains into long-term inclusive growth. Specifically, the government should strengthen progressive taxation to redistribute wealth fairly.
Income Inequality, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag, ECM, Kuznets Curve
ASSESSING THE ROLE OF SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS ON WILLINGNESS-TO- PAY FOR MALARIA INSURANCE WITH OUTDOOR MOSQUITOES COMMUNITY FUMIGATION IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
Malaria remains a significant public health challenge around the world, especially in sub-Saharan African countries. The high transmission rates of this disease contribute to a substantial economic burden in the form of out-of-pocket expenditure and health issues, which can lead to death, especially among children under five years old and pregnant women. Several methods have been employed to eradicate malaria and prevent mosquitoes; however, the eradication of mosquito breeding sources has not yet been explored. This study assesses the role of socioeconomic factors on willingness to pay (WTP) for malaria health insurance with outdoor mosquitoes’ community fumigation (MHI-OMCF) in Kwara state, Nigeria. Data was collected from one local government with the highest prevalence of malaria incidences in Kwara state. Random utility theory with expected utility theory was used to elicit 450 households' WTP for MHI-OMCF. Subsequently, probit regression was used to analyse the level of education, level of income, type of employment, age, premium amount, marital status, gender and residential area on WTP for MHI-OMCF. All the socioeconomic factors have a significant effect on WTP for MHI-OMCF except gender. The study recommended that the Nigerian government and private parastatals should improve and facilitate the establishment of MHI-OMCF with proper inclusion in the national malaria elimination program.
Contingent valuation, fumigation, health insurance, malaria, mosquitoes and willingness to pay
CAREER DEVELOPMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON THE PERFORMANCE OF EMPLOYEES IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN ILORIN METROPOLIS, NIGERIA
Employees in the banking industry face significant challenges that have resulted in job dissatisfaction and low performance. These issues highlight the urgent need for highly skilled bank employees who are capable of meeting organisational objectives. The study examined the impact of career development on employee performance. The target population of the study is 197 employees of three selected branches of United Bank of Africa (UBA PLC) in Ilorin, Kwara State. Meanwhile, the study adopted a combination of stratified sampling and simple random sampling techniques. Taro Yamane's (1967) formula was used to obtain a sample size of 130. Data were collected with the aid of a questionnaire from the senior staff of the Bank. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used as methods of data analysis, and regression was employed as an inferential statistic. Findings revealed that career advancement has a significant impact on employee performance. The study concludes that the relationship between career development and employee performance is positive in the banking industry in Kwara State, Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that management of banks should design and promote career development that can lead to optimum employee performance.
Career Counseling; Career development; Career Mentoring; Employee Performance
DOES GDP MATTER WHEN ASSESSING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION AND AGGREGATE IMPORT? EVIDENCE FROM ECOWAS REGION
The study examines how aggregate import and inflation dynamics are affected by exchange rate pass-through in ECOWAS nations. The study's theoretical underpinnings are based on buying power parity, which holds that since imports are valued in US dollars, abrupt changes in import prices will impact the importing countries' currency exchange rates. The analysis made use of panel data from 2006 to 2023 from the four most populous West African nations: Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Niger Republic. This study makes use of Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). The results of this study show that the exchange rate and total imports have an unequal pass-through. An uneven pass-through between inflation and exchange was also discovered by the study. An asymmetric pass-through between inflation and exchange was also discovered by the study. The study concluded that to properly examine exchange rate pass-through, GDP must be included as a distinct variable. To lower the level of total imports, the report advises policymakers in ECOWAS economies to develop import substitution policies. In order to lower the region's unfavourable inflation rate, the study also suggests that measures to lower inflation be implemented such as a reduction in government spending in administration and firm monetary policies.
Aggregate imports, ECOWAS, ERPT, Inflation, Purchasing power parity
THE IMPACT OF REAL INTEREST RATE ON INCOME INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA
The study investigates the impact of real interest rates on income inequality in Nigeria from 1995 to 2022. This study adopts ARDL regression analysis to investigate the impact of real interest rates on income inequality in Nigeria. The study finds that the real interest rate has a strong significant negative impact on income inequality while per capita GDP and unemployment rate have no impact on income inequality in Nigeria. The study also reveals that there is no existing long-run relationship between real interest rates and income inequality in Nigeria. The study recommends that policymakers should design a policy that will lower the real interest rate which leads to higher income which benefits the poor and a reduction in income inequality.
Real interest rate, Income inequality, Unemployment rate, Per capita GDP, Interest rate
THE IMPACT OF FIRM’S INNOVATIVENESS ON SUSTAINABILITY REPORTING OF LISTED NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES IN NIGERIA
As sustainability reporting pushes organisations to balance environmental and social responsibilities with profitability, many firms face substantial challenges in integrating these elements into their reporting practices. A key factor in addressing these challenges is firm innovativeness, which enables companies to adapt more seamlessly to corporate reporting systems that prioritise environmental, social, and economic accountability. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of a firm's innovativeness on sustainable reporting of non-financial listed companies in Nigeria. Using an ex-post facto research design, the study covers a period of 12 years from 2011 to 2022. The study examines key variables of firm complexity, technological infrastructure, research and development, managerial efficiency, and firm size. Findings indicate that firm complexity, research and development, and managerial efficiency positively impact sustainability reporting in Nigeria. On the other hand, technological infrastructure and firm size show no significant effect. The study concludes that firm complexity, research and development (R&D), and managerial efficiency are significant factors that influence sustainability reporting among non-financial companies in Nigeria. This study recommends, among others, that since R&D significantly influences sustainability reporting, management of non-financial companies in Nigeria should prioritise and increase investments in R&D activities.
Firm Innovativeness, Sustainability Reporting, Non-Financial Companies
IMPACT OF PUBLIC SECTOR REFORMS ON FINANCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY OF FEDERAL UNIVERSITIES IN THE NORTHCENTRAL NIGERIA
Financial accountability is fundamental to promoting trust and transparency within public institutions. However, issues such as corruption and inefficiency continue to hinder these efforts. In response, various anti-graft initiatives and financial control reforms have been introduced, but the effectiveness of these reforms remains a key concern. This study evaluates the impact of public sector reforms on the financial accountability of federal universities in North-Central Nigeria. Using a survey research design, data were collected from bursary staff in eight federal universities within the region. The study employs Ordered Logistic Regression and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to assess the effectiveness of these reforms. The findings indicate significant positive effects of anti-graft legal frameworks and procurement laws on financial accountability respectively. However, the role of anti-graft agencies and financial reporting showed insignificant effects. The study concludes that anti-graft reforms, particularly legal frameworks and procurement laws, are crucial for ensuring financial accountability in Nigerian universities. Recommendations include strengthening collaboration between anti-graft agencies and university audit departments, mandating regular financial reviews, and instituting centralised procurement audits.
Anti-graft Reforms, Financial Accountability, Federal Universities, Regulatory Compliance
DETERMINANTS OF HAPPINESS AMONG RICE FARMERS IN NIGER STATE, NIGERIA: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
This paper examines the determinants of rice farmers' happiness in Niger State, Nigeria. Using a multi-stage sampling approach, the study selected a sample of 384 rice farmers from the Katcha, Shiroro, and Wushishi local government areas. The selection criteria for these areas were based on factors such as the intensity of rice farming activities and the diversity of farming practices. Data collection took place over a specified time frame (July 2024 to October 2024), utilising a structured questionnaire. The data were analysed using frequency distributions, mean scores, and probit regression models. Results indicate that rice farmers generally reported satisfaction with their well-being; however, key determinants like education level and farming experience were observed to be limited among the population. In contrast, attributes such as age, marital status, and household size demonstrated a significant and positive effect on well-being. To promote the happiness of rice farmers, it is recommended that government and agricultural stakeholders prioritise these impactful factors.
Farmers, Happiness, Rice, Specialization, Well-being
EFFECTS OF TAXATION ON INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OUTPUT IN NIGERIA
This paper studies the connection between taxation and industrial output in Nigeria using time series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2022). The research employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to confirm stationarity, followed by the ARDL bounds test to assess cointegration among variables. A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is then used to reflect the asymmetric effects of corporate income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT), and institutional quality (INSQ) on industrial output. The results reveal that in the long run, increased CIT negatively affects industrial output, while improved VAT and institutional quality positively impact output. In the short run, VAT and institutional quality are statistically significant in enhancing industrial performance. The error correction model (ECM) displays a 36% swiftness of change towards equilibrium. Based on these findings, the study recommends reforming corporate tax policies to reduce the burden on industries, which could include reducing the CIT rate for key sectors, offering tax incentives for industries with high growth potential, and simplifying tax administration to improve compliance. In addition, strengthening VAT collection and improving institutional quality are crucial steps to stimulate Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Taxation, Industrial Output, Corporate Income Tax, Value-Added Tax, Institutional Quality
DETERMINANTS OF AGGREGATE IMPORT IN NIGERIA
While productive imports can boost the economy, excessive non-productive imports may negatively impact domestic industries and employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of aggregate imports in Nigeria using an imperfect substitution model. This study analyses annual data for Nigeria that were obtained from 1981 to 2022 from the World Development Indicators and the CBN Statistical Bulletin. Key variables tested include foreign reserves, real effective exchange rate, real GDP per capita, import unit value, export per capita, foreign capital inflows to GDP and tariff rate. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds test, findings reveal that import demand is positively impacted by real GDP per capita and foreign reserves, but not significantly by real effective exchange rates or tariff rates. Furthermore, exports per capita and foreign capital inflows when substituted for foreign reserves all have a positive impact on aggregate import per capita, while import unit value when substituted for real effective exchange rate and tariff rate does not affect real import per capita, all in the long. Based on these conclusions, the study recommends that authorities revise import policies to support local production, adjust foreign reserve holdings, and enhance export-led strategies to manage Nigeria’s import demand effectively.
Imports, Foreign reserves, Real effective exchange rate, Real GDP per capita, Tariff
EFFECT OF ETHNIC FRACTIONALISATION ON INFORMALITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
This study examined the effect of ethnic fractionalisation on informality in Sub-Saharan Africa, utilising two measures of informality (viz: Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) and Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC)) and employing a theoretical proposition on ethnic fractionalisation and economic dualism theory as the theoretical framework. Conducting a unit root test and then using the Kao panel test for the cointegration of data from 1993 to 2021, the paper aimed to establish a long-run relationship among the variables. Panel ARDL estimation technique was then utilised to analyse the data. Findings revealed a positive effect of ethnic fractionalisation on the informal sector, in line with the proposition advanced in the paper. Also, the control variables, comprising economic development, unemployment, educational attainment, and World governance combined indicators, were all found to have the expected effects on informality. The study concluded with recommendations for policymakers to formulate and implement policies aimed at reducing the rather undesirable effect of ethnic fractionalisation on the size of the informal economy and to also check the extent of informality effectively through other targeted interventions.
Ethnic Fractionalisation, Informality, and Sub-Sahara Africa